2022-07-29
Refined copper new capacity to maintain high growth rate in 2022
In terms of upstream supply, the current quotation of copper concentrate processing fee TC has stood at US$60/ton, indicating that the most tense period of copper supply has passed. Affected by the increase in scrap metal import standards in Malaysia, the tight supply of scrap copper may continue. In 2022, my country's refined copper production capacity will increase by 1.08 million tons, still maintaining a relatively high growth rate.
Cables are the largest consumer of copper in terms of downstream demand. Although the current investment amount of the power grid is still far from the annual plan, there is still no sign of "catching up with the work" in terms of the monthly investment amount. Recently, the production of household appliances has fallen seasonally. In the traditional automobile industry, the output has rebounded again, and the output of new energy vehicles has maintained growth despite the shortage of supply.
In terms of inventories, domestic and foreign dominant copper inventories have been at historically low levels. In my opinion, this is the most important factor supporting copper prices in the current period.
Macroscopically, there is a positive correlation between the PPI and CPI scissors and copper prices. The scissors difference is at the upper edge of the interval, and the probability of falling is greater than the probability of rising. Therefore, the author believes that in the long run, copper prices may peak. In the short to medium term, the huge RMB borrowing expectations in January may support a rebound in copper prices.
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Jiangsu Weigang Alloy Products Co., Ltd. has always focused on the production and sales of various smelting materials. It is a domestic manufacturer and supplier of silicon iron, silicon manganese, metal silicon, silicon carbide, high -carbon silicon and other products.
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